March Executive Turnover Defies Weakened Job Growth Numbers

Last Friday, April 3, the U.S. Government released its job growth and employment numbers for March, and to most analysts’ surprise, the totals were quite weak and well below most analysts’ expectations. Liberum Research, which tracks executive turnover in public companies saw the situation a bit differently. Liberum’s North American executive turnover numbers were much better than the U.S. government job growth and and unemployment numbers for March. While Liberum’s March figures were far from terrific, they continued to point in a positive direction for the North American economy particularly the United States economy. Many experts are now atttributing the government’s weak March numbers to the continuing harsh winter. On Monday April 6, the Los Angeles Times quoted the President of the New York Fed, William C. Dudley when referring to the job numbers as folllows,

“The March labor market report is another indicator that the first quarter is likely to be quite weak,” Dudley said in the first comments from a Fed policymaker on the employment data released Friday.

Dudley said the report showed a broad-based slowdown in job creation last month. He added that “it will be important to monitor developments to determine whether the softness in the March labor market report …. foreshadows a more substantial slowing in the labor market than I currently anticipate.” The recent “downside surprises” in key economic data reflect “temporary factors to a significant degree.”

His staff found that the effects of snow and winter weather in the Northeast and Midwest were 20% to 25% more severe than the five-year average.

Time will tell but Liberum Research contends Dudley’s assessment is correct. Over the last number of months, Liberum Research has seen a slowdown in executive turnover but as of this point, the slowdown has not been worrisome. Liberum expects the spring and summer months will show far more improvement in executive turnover totals, and if that happens it will bode well for the North American economy.

Liberum has put together below, a seven plus year quarterly breakdown of executive turnover totals for CEOs, CFOs and C-level executives covering North America. Most of the below quarterly numbers showed continuing declines until the second quarter of 2011. At that point, the numbers began to reverse themselves. Turnover at the executive levels of corporate America began to grow, while not consistently, and that trend has continued and Liberum expects it to be about the same for the remainder of 2015.

Anyone investing in the market must pay special attention to executive turnover both at the top and the middle executive ranks. Failure to do so, will result in lost opportunities or worse. To take advantage of executive changes, get a free trial to Liberum’s Online Management Change Database. Just call Richard at 212-988-5497 or send an email to richard@twst.com requesting your free trial. Within a day of your trial, you will have access to over 200,000 data points from which you can generate ideas and daily information on who is changing jobs at the top and where they are going.

Quarterly and Annual Executive Turnover Totals

Below is a simple table outlining the quarterly and annual turnover totals as registered through Liberum Research’s Management Change Database for 2008 through the first quarter of 2015 for CEOs, CFOs, and overall C-level turnover.

Total CEO Turnover Comparisons