Short Copper, Go Long Silver, Gold, And Agricultural Commodities Says Eastern Investment
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John D. Kattar, CFA is Chief Investment Officer at Eastern Investment Advisors. Prior to joining Eastern in 2005, Mr. Kattar was Managing Partner at Ardent Asset Management, a hedge fund management and consulting firm. He has been Director of Growth Equities at Mellon Financial, Director of U.S. Equities at The Boston Company, and has also held senior investment positions at Phoenix Investment Partners and Baring Asset Management.
Mr. Kattar earned his MBA from the University of Chicago and MS and BA degrees from the University of Massachusetts. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst and a member of both the CFA Institute and the Boston Security Analysts Society. In addition to his professional responsibilities, he serves as Vice Chairman of the Investment Committee of the University of Massachusetts Foundation, and on the board of the Essex County Community Foundation.
TWST: Do you favor metals and mining stocks at this time?
Mr. Kattar: Yes, we have had a position in base metals as well as precious metals, and both of them had done very well for us. The base metals have done better off the March lows because of their economic sensitivity and the perception that the global economy is in some sort of recovery. In the broader commodities space, energy has also done well for the same reason.
Recently, we have taken profits in the copper names, which have absolutely exploded higher and added to precious metals, which have lagged a little. We generally favor commodities that have lagged, such as silver and agriculture, because we view the secular commodities story as much bigger than just a cyclical recovery. Our view is that in the long run all commodities are basically headed to the same place, and that's much higher.
TWST: What about gold - anything there in the gold mining stocks with the price of gold growing so high?
Mr. Kattar: The interesting thing about gold is that it has been in a bull market for nine years but has been consolidating sideways for the past year and a half. It recently broke out of that consolidation pattern and crashed through the $1,000 barrier. There were some headlines about it at the time, but the interesting thing is despite the fact that gold has been up each of the past nine years, has had this massive consolidation and has recently overcome major resistance, nobody is very bullish about gold. Even the gold bulls seem to have their doubts or at least are expecting a correction. So this is all very bullish.
We think gold is headed much higher and are viewing the old $1,000 ceiling as a new floor. We have a 12-month target of $1,300 and think gold will double over the next four or five years. Our major holdings include Newmont Mining (NEM) and the gold ETF.
We also like silver quite a bit, although we don't currently have any direct exposure to silver. Silver is cheap relative to gold, benefits from the same positive factors that are affecting gold. But in addition, it is economically sensitive and so will benefit as the global economy continues to recover. We actually slightly prefer silver to gold at current prices, although we like them both.
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