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Analyst comments on Millenium's winning hands on formula Full article published: 07/11/2002     JONATHAN ASCHOFF, PHD is a Senior Research Analyst for Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., Inc.


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Seven analysts and top management from forty five sector firms examine the Biotechnology sector in this 186 - page Special Focus - Biotechnology Issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info583.htm

TWST: Jonathan, were there any strong performers for the first half of 2002?

Dr. Aschoff: There were a few micro-caps that did particularly well, but the vast majority did not do well, and I mean from the most stable and profitable product companies right down to companies that should, by no means, be public. All of those companies, across the board, have performed terribly so far in 2002. Regarding companies that are small, where a relatively small event means a lot to the company, a select few of them really held their valuations, but very few, and they are predominantly micro-caps.

TWST: Jonathan, what are two or three of your top picks at the moment?

Dr. Aschoff: I’d pick IDEC, Millennium (Nasdaq:MLNM) and Diversa (DVSA). I’m definitely not going to penalize Millennium for picking up some products while they let genomics take its due course.

TWST: Would you give us the rationale for your choices?

Dr. Aschoff: I still think IDEC is going to have the highest growth among its tight-knit peers of about six or seven companies. I’m willing to pay for that. I also like the competitive landscape for its two drugs, meaning there’s little or no competition for them. I also like moving out of the approved markets rapidly into other non-approved areas — including things such as cancer and other non-cancer products that are somewhat mechanistically related. I’m speaking particularly about Rituxan. I also like the leverage IDEC gets with Zevalin. IDEC already understands the Rituxan market, and it is now going out there with Zevalin. Granted, you have to deal with the radiopharmacies and the nuclear docs, but I think the leverage couldn’t be any better since IDEC understands that market perfectly well. In fact, IDEC already addressed them with Rituxan, and 50% will ultimately be candidates for Zevalin. With Millennium, I like the JV partnerships, and that also goes for Diversa. Each of them has two big JVs. A big problem with smaller companies is that when you do something that means a lot to you, it often means a lot less to a big company. Let’s say you hand a product candidate off to a big company and they take it downstream more slowly because it’s not their baby. Oftentimes, it simply doesn’t mean as much to the large company. Diversa has JVs with Syngenta (SYT) and Dow Chemical (DOW). Millennium has JVs with Aventis (AVE) and Abbott. And I like the fact that the companies that I’m interested in — in this case Millennium and Diversa — have their hands in the development of products throughout the entire process, all the way through to marketing, so it doesn’t just sit and die in a big pharma company because it’s such a small part of their massive product candidate portfolio. I also believe that Diversa can be sustainably profitable in 2004, and I like the management at Millennium.

This special issue includes:

1) Special Focus - Biotechnology - In an in-depth (10,400 words) Analyst Roundtable, Jonathan Aschoff, PhD. , a Senior Research Analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., Franklin M. Berger, a Managing Director at J.P. Morgan H&Q, Joseph P. Dougherty, a Vice President at Lehman Brothers, Fariba Ghodsian, a Managing Director & Director of Healthcare Research at Roth Capital Partners, Alexander A. Hittle, CFA, a Senior Research Analyst at A.G. Edwards, Craig D. West, an Associate Vice President & Senior Biotech Analyst at A.G. Edwards, examine the outlook for the sector and share specific stock recommendations.

2) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of 17 - sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: MLNM

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive and in-depth Roundtable discussion of Biotechnology Issue featuring other analysts and published in The Wall Street Transcript on 07/08/02. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2002, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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