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Analyst believes Taliman is one of the better oil companies in the world Full article published: 05/09/2002     ANDREW T. LEES is a Vice President and Senior Analyst at Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated


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Four analysts and two experts examine the oil & gas sector in this special 29-page Oil & Gas: Exploration & Production issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info542.htm

TWST: Andrew, how have the E&P stocks performed over the past 12-18 months?

Mr. Lees: Since the beginning of 2001, the E&P stocks I follow have declined approximately 10%. Last year, I think my average large cap producer was down 20% in total. However, over the last three years they’re up 100%. Year to date they’re up 13%, but they’re up roughly 45% since they bottomed out, which is really a more relevant number than any particular calendar date. They bottomed out in late September 2001. They’ve had a great rally of late, in comparison to the general market.

TWST: Andrew, have recent global events affected oil and gas prices?

Mr. Lees: We’ve obviously seen an impact of a couple of dollars in oil prices for the turmoil in Venezuela! When traders thought Venezuela was going to produce at productive capacity rather than OPEC quotas, oil prices went down $2, and when Chavez went back into power oil prices went up $1! In addition to that, there is an impact of maybe $3 or $4 in oil prices for the Middle East conflict: i.e., if peace miraculously broke out in the Middle East, I think oil prices would go down $4. That said, I don’t think that’s going to happen. The events in the Middle East have solidified some part of that premium - an access premium, if you will, of a couple of dollars, anyway. So our outlook for oil prices is really quite simple. I think it’s defensible for OPEC to get the lower end of the range, say $22-$24 for their blended basket, which works out to $24 or $26 WTI. And I think the economy can flourish at that price. So we try not to predict the conflict or turmoil premiums and just go forward on the equilibrium price. For gas, with a recovering North American economy occurring at the same time as falling supply — and I agree with John regarding 3%-5% declines in year-over-year deliverability in US gas — I think things could get tight by the end of the year. I believe you’re looking at gas prices in excess of $3.50 going forward as kind of an average, although the volatility will definitely remain. I’m not sure, however, if we’ll see high enough sustainable gas prices — say, $4 or over — to see Alaskan gas flow, which I guess ultimately means a boon for LNG and for nearby Caribbean gas.

TWST: Would you tell us about Pioneer (NYSE:PXD) and Talisman (NYSE:TLM)?

Mr. Lees: I think that Pioneer is a great company. On the Talisman side, it’s a Canadian energy producer, and I think it is one of the better oil companies in the world. However, TLM is overlooked because it is based in Calgary and has a Sudanese asset that prohibits a lot of US investors from taking the company seriously. I believe it has several discoveries on their plates, Trinidad being the most pertinent, which should add value over and above what people are focusing on right now. There is also a possibility that they both keep the Sudanese asset and the US government normalizes relations with Sudan. I think that would be the first step in Talisman finally recognizing some value for that asset. So I think you have upside in both of those stocks as well.

This special issue includes:

1) Oil & Gas: Exploration & Production - In an in-depth (12,300 words) Analyst Roundtable, M. Bradley Davis, Senior Vice President at SWS Securities, John P. Herrlin Jr., First Vice President at Merrill Lynch Global Securities, Andrew T. Lees, Vice President at Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. and Shannon Nome, Managing Director at J.P. Morgan Chase, examine the outlook for the sector including stock performance, industry definition and share specific stock recommendations.

2) Energy Industry Trends & Issues - In an in-depth (3,300 words) Expert Interview, Gregory B. Barnett, Founder and President of EnerCom, Inc., examines the outlook for the sector.

3) Energy Industry Trends & Challenges - In an in-depth (2,700 words) Expert Interview, Howard A. Christensen, co-Chairman of Christensen & Associates, examines the outlook for the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: TLM

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive and in-depth Roundtable discussion of Oil & Gas: Exploration & Production Issue featuring other analysts and published in The Wall Street Transcript on 05/06/02. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2002, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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