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Analyst highlights Johnson & Johnson's rapamycin drug-eluding stent called CYPHER Full article published: 03/22/2002     PETER WEN is Vice President at Credit Suisse Asset Management


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Five analysts, one expert and top management from twenty-two sector firms examine the pharmaceutical Industry sector in this special 111-page Pharmaceutical Industry issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info511.htm

TWST: Peter, what part have pharmaceuticals played in your strategy at Credit Suisse Asset Management over the past 12 months?

Mr. Wen: I would say we have been very selective in the large pharmaceutical group during the past 12 months. We had a much greater emphasis on the smaller, faster growth specialty pharmaceuticals and generic companies that were beneficiaries of the negative issues facing the major pharmaceuticals.

TWST: Peter, back to you. From the buy side, when do you start looking at 2003 and beyond?

Mr. Wen: One thing we look at is patent expiration. When are we going to hit the trough as far as top-line pressure? But the key question is what will follow after that: what do the pipelines look like, and what kind of pipeline risk exists for each of the companies?

TWST: Peter, what are the issues to watch most closely with regard to pricing and reimbursement in the US and overseas? Mariola touched on the fact there are a lot of questions being raised about healthcare cost inflation and the price of pharmaceuticals.

Mr. Wen: I think the one issue that remains outstanding is the prescription drug benefit program that we were talking about during the last presidential election year. Somehow, post-election, we started thinking that it had dissipated, but I am certain that we will hear more drug benefit program proposals for seniors in the upcoming months. I also believe we will continue to see major drug companies offering prescription discount cards such as that proposed by Pfizer for seniors who cannot afford drugs. Whether the discount pricing can be offset by volume gain is difficult to assess. While our view has always been net neutral to pharmaceutical revenues in the near term, the concern is that the government could eventually force a similar program on the broader elderly population. The upside, however, is that the goodwill and positive PR gets transferred to other more pressing political issues. Another issue that continues to shadow reimbursement is AWP (average wholesale price) reform used for calculating Medicare reimbursement. This is more likely to be a headline grabber with details of logistics and final implementation being still far away.

TWST: Peter, what will it take for you to warm up to Bristol, Lilly, J&J, Merck, Pharmacia or any of the others that we perhaps haven’t mentioned?

Mr. Wen: You just mentioned a name that no one has talked about- Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ). I am very excited about J&J’s rapamycin drug-eluding stent called CYPHER. Rick mentioned that the key to driving drug usage is clinical data, and here we have clinical data showing the benefits of a reduction of restenosis. I think this is a product that they’re going to charge twice the pricing relative to the non-coated bare metal stents. Right now J&J’s Cordis division has about 30% market share, and based on our discussions with interventional cardiologists, the restenosis data suggest this is a no-brainer for them to switch to CYPHER. They can easily go from 30% to perhaps half of the market in no time at twice the pricing. Contrary to negative drug pricing from our earlier discussion, this is one product with a clear positive pricing trend. The other part of J&J that I think has been overemphasized concern is the competitive threat of Amgen’s Aranesp to JNJ’s Procrit franchise. We’ve been hearing about this Aranesp launch for quite a while which now appears to be slower than expected. Granted, sales may pick up once reimbursement is established, but at the end of the day, switching from Procrit to Aranesp may not turn out to be a no-brainer because it is a different EPO molecule. On top of that, J&J has very strong ties to the hospitals and clinics to help maintain their Procrit franchise.

This special issue includes:

1) Pharmaceutical Industry - In an in-depth (14,300 words) Analyst Roundtable, Mario Corso, Vice President at Leerink Swann & Company, Adam Greene, Vice President at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, Mariola B. Haggar, President at Haggar Concord Partners, LP, Richard R. Stover, Global Pharmaceuticals Analyst at Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder, Inc., Peter Wen, Vice President at Credit Suisse Asset Management, examine the outlook for the sector including EPS growth, industry trends and share specific stock recommendations.

2) Outlook for Pharmaceuticals & Life Sciences - In an in-depth (3,500 words) Expert Interview, John D. Rhodes, Managing Partner for Pharmaceuticals and Life Sciences at Deloitte & Touche, examines the outlook for the sector.

3) The TWST confidential Off-The-Record survey of management performance of eleven sector firms asked market insiders about the ability of management teams to create shareholder value.

4) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of twenty-two sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: JNJ

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive and in-depth Roundtable discussion of Pharmaceutical Industry Issue featuring other analysts and published in The Wall Street Transcript on 03/18/02. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2002, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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