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Analyst highlights Northwest Biotherapeutics Full article published: 02/19/2002     FARIBA F. GHODSIAN is currently Managing Director and Director of Healthcare Research at Roth Capital Partners


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Four analysts and top management from sixty-one sector firms examine the Roth Capital Partners 14th Annual Growth Stock Conference in this special 222-page issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info493.htm

TWST: What are your assumptions on availability of capital and valuations that give you that perspective — that there may be strength in acquisition activity?

Dr. Ghodsian: Along with the fact that there have been a few acquisitions and there may be some momentum for that, we also have the fact that public financing still remains very selective right now. We have had several IPOs; we participated in an IPO in December for Northwest Biotherapeutics (Nasdaq:NWBT). But it has been a very selective market, and there has clearly been pressure on valuations, as typically the IPOs eventually closed at the lower range or below the expected range. Along with that, if the public financing market is difficult, you typically tend to see more consolidation, because if companies cannot exit through the IPO window, they try to make an exit through a merger with a public company. There are public companies that have a good amount of cash remaining from what they raised in the year 2000, which was a record year for public financing. But interestingly enough, last year, 2001, even though the IPO market was very slow, there were actually a lot of secondary offerings and PIPEs (private investment in public equity companies). So actually, companies that were already public could raise large amounts of money — in fact, 2001 was the second largest year in terms of public financing. In the year 2000 the industry raised about $33 billion; in year 2001, the industry raised just over $14 billion. So it was a very good year by all measures for public financing for companies that were already public, but it wasn’t for IPOs. So you could argue that a lot of those companies that were already public and could raise money last year are in a very good position to make additional acquisitions of companies that want to go public but can’t because the IPO window is halfway closed.

TWST: Which other companies fall into the top group?

Dr. Ghodsian: Northwest Bio is one company, and again, we participated in a $20 million IPO for Northwest Bio in December. Again, going back to the platform technology thesis, it has two platforms, both related to the immune system. One is its cell therapy platform, where it takes specific immune cells called dendritic cells from the patient, exposes them to cancer antigens and puts them back in the patient. Northwest Bio just started its Phase III clinical trial for such cell therapy for prostate cancer and Phase II trials for brain cancer. I like the broad platform and application to a variety of cancers. vaccine soon and, along with that partner, initiate their second Phase III.

TWST: Finally, in your dealings with institutional investors and the way they approach the market, what do you think they are missing? What are they obsessing about that they shouldn’t be?

Dr. Ghodsian: Overall, fund managers have become much more sophisticated about biotech and the drug approval process. I have seen fund managers who are too focused on earnings, an approach that is not as relevant for many biotech companies that are event-driven rather than earnings driven. But again, in this post-Enron era, one may argue that we have all underestimated the importance of numbers!

This special conference issue includes:

1) Outlook for Biotechnology - In an in-depth (3,100 words) Analyst Interview, Fariba F. Ghodsian, Managing Director and Director of Healthcare Research at Roth Capital Partners, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

2) Outlook for Consumer Stocks - In an in-depth (2,900 words) Analyst Interview, Anton Brenner, Senior Vice President of Research at Roth Capital Partners, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

3) Wireless Technology & Software - In an in-depth (2,200 words) Analyst Interview, Daniel B. Campbell II, Senior Vice President of Research at Roth Capital Partners, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

4) Optical Networking & Optical Components - In an in-depth (3,100 words) Analyst Interview, David Kang, Research Analyst covering fiber optic communications groups at Roth Capital Partners, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

5) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of sixty-one sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


Tickers included in this excerpt: NWBT

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 02/18/02. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2002, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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