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Retek is very well positioned as a leader in the retail merchandise management space, reports Analyst Full article published: 12/21/2001     JON EKONIAK is a Vice President and Senior Research Analyst at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray Inc.


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Eight experts, three analysts and top management from thirty-eight sector firms examine the e-Business sector in this special 190-page e-Business issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info468.htm.

TWST: Finally, are there any companies to highlight that don’t necessarily fall into these three categories?

Mr. Ekoniak: Yes. Retek (Nasdaq:RETK) and JDA Software (Nasdaq:JDAS) are targeting the retail merchandise management space. Both of these companies are benefiting from the very large secular trend whereby retailers are looking more aggressively at buying package applications versus building applications in-house. Many of the large retailers in the US that we have spoken with build 70%-80% of their software in-house with their own software developers. They’re looking to ramp that down to 30%-40% over the next several years. This is the same sort of trend that we saw within the ERP world back in the early 1990s. It’s the same trend that actually gave rise to the likes of SAP (NYSE:SAP) and PeopleSoft (Nasdaq:PSFT) and Baan. Retek is very well positioned as a leader in the space and can be expected to continue to excel in this environment. In fact, this is the only company on my coverage list that has not revised estimates down whatsoever during this tough environment. They’ve been reiterating guidance not only for 2001, but for 2002.

TWST: What is the investor philosophy or the portfolio strategy at this point when you look at the variety, the scale — large to small — and the focus areas that are available in business commerce and software today?

Mr. Ekoniak: About eight months ago, investors were very hesitant to even dabble in software. In fact, they were mostly underweight software and even looking to reduce their position. Then about four to six months ago they had more of a focus on the winners in the space; investors just wanted to focus on the big names. Now, with the stock runs that a lot of the large companies have had, investors are looking to go beyond those names to the next tier, asking: who are the companies that they may have overlooked, particularly the strong companies that will benefit when the environment gets better but that may have been overlooked in the near term? Over the last couple of months, investors are getting much more aggressive in software, and they are considering not just the big players but really all players that are expected to succeed in the long term.

TWST: Are they due for a pullback? Do you see the entire grouping getting stronger as some of the smaller companies’ value is recognized? Will the leaders stay on top and retain their premium, or do they come back to the pack as investors look more broadly within this area?

Mr. Ekoniak: That’s a great question. There is a difference between business performance and stock prices, at least in the near term. We’ve seen stock prices rise by 40%, 50%, 60% since the beginning of October, yet fundamentals underlying this have not improved that much. For many of these companies, there is a lot that’s being priced into the stocks, including a fairly strong recovery. As long as these companies continue to hit estimates, the stock prices can be maintained. But if we see weakness, there could be large fall-off in stock prices for some of the companies.

TWST: Macro events could also have some volatility in pricing.

Mr. Ekoniak: Both to the upside and the downside.

1) The Future of e-Business - In an in-depth (2,200 words) Expert Interview, Mick Calder, Analyst at Line56, examines the outlook for the sector.

2) B2B Supply Chain Strategy - In an in-depth (3,000 words) Expert Interview, Rick Andrade, Senior Manager at Cap Gemini Ernst & Young, examines the outlook for the sector.

3) e-Business Management Strategies - In an in-depth (2,300 words) Expert Interview, Cathy Spencer, Research Director at Gartner Inc., examines the outlook for the sector.

4) Outlook for CRM and PRM Suppliers - In an in-depth (1,200 words) Expert Interview, Karen E. Smith, Senior Analyst at Aberdeen Group, examines the outlook for the sector.

5) The Continuing Evolution of B2B - In an in-depth (2,900 words) Expert Interview, Thomas M. Koulopoulos, President at The Delphi Group, examines the outlook for the sector.

6) Supply Chain Management Services - In an in-depth (3,400 words) Expert Interview, Jay Holata, Associate Partner of Accenture, examines the outlook for the sector.

7) Investing in e-Business Stocks - In an in-depth (3,100 words) Expert Interview, Robert McCullough, Director for Hurwitz Group, examines the outlook for the sector.

8) Supply Chain Strategies - In an in-depth (3,900 words) Expert Interview, John Fontanella, Service Director at AMR Research, examines the outlook for the sector.

9) E-Commerce Software - In an in-depth (3,500 words) Analyst Interview, Jon Ekoniak, Vice President at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray Inc., examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

10) Outlook for e-Business - In an in-depth (2,400 words) Analyst Interview, William Chappell, Senior Analyst in Equity Research at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

11) Enterprise Solutions in B2B - In an in-depth (1,800 words) Analyst Interview, Robert B. Austrian, Managing Director at Banc of America Securities, examines the outlook for the sector and shares specific stock recommendations.

12) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of thirty-eight sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector.


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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 12/17/01. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2001, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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