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Analyst has a strong buy on Myriad Genetics on the genomics side Full article published: 10/10/2001     RICKY GOLDWASSER is a Director at UBS Warburg LLC


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Seven analysts and top management from one hundred eighty-seven sector firms examine the Healthcare sector in this special 673-page Third Annual UBS Warburg LLC Healthcare Conference issue from The Wall Street Transcript, available at (212/952-7433) or http://www.twst.com/info/info426.htm

TWST: What are you looking at as the basics for this group? How might those basics be applied over the next six months?

Ms. Goldwasser: My coverage universe includes two groups — the genomics group and the diagnostics group. 2001 was a difficult year for the genomics group. Our genomics index is down 136% year to date, reflecting investors’ realization that although the genomics opportunity is enormous, it’s still three to five years away. Due to the increased risk aversion after September 11, we expect to see continued pressure on the group. Our diagnostic index is down about 14% year to date outperforming the S&P, which is down about 21%. The metrics to look at when analyzing the diagnostic companies are price and volume, which continue to be very strong. We view these names as safe havens for investors.

TWST: Overall, what do you see as visibility on these companies, particularly now with the economy coasting or diminishing a bit over the next six months?

Ms. Goldwasser: Our view on both genomics and diagnostics has not been changed by the economy. Our genomics universe is mostly composed of companies that are focused on drug discovery and development, and should not be impacted by the overall economy. We continue to look for these companies to reach clinical milestones over the next six to 12 month period. The diagnostic services group, for the most part, is not impacted by the economy; patients still need to go to the doctor and get their lab tests done. There are some areas, such as drug abuse testing, that are negatively impacted by the economy, but these tests account for a very small portion of testing volume.

TWST: What’s the overall environment for consolidation, recognizing that the genomics group consists of development companies? Does size matter or do clusters of intellectual property give extra value at this point?

Ms. Goldwasser: We expect to see a continued investment in R&D, which will be complemented by M&A activity as companies find a balance between build and buy decisions.

TWST: Within the two groups, what are the specific company recommendations that you want to highlight?

Ms. Goldwasser: On the genomics side, we have a strong buy on Myriad Genetics (Nasdaq:MYGN). Myriad has developed an industrialized proteomics technology platform that they are using as a discovery engine for the development of therapeutics and molecular diagnostic tests. The company has one drug in clinical development and three predictive medicine tests on the market. We view their business model, which combines therapeutics with diagnostics, as a winning formula. The commercial diagnostic products allow them to develop marketing capabilities that will be an important asset once their therapeutic products reach the market, while generating cash and enabling the company to control its burn rate. Milestones for the next 12 months include (1) data from phase IIA trials for their prostate cancer drug, (2) the launch of a predictive medicine test that evaluates predisposition for melanoma, and (3) initiation of phase II/III trials for their prostate cancer drug.

This special conference issue includes:

1) Outlook for Health Care Sectors - In an in-depth (2,900 words) Analyst Interview, Geoffrey Harris, Head of Global Healthcare Research & Annabel Saminy, Associate Director in the healthcare group, both at UBS Warburg, examine the outlook for the sector including biotechnology, life sciences, tools and share specific stock recommendations. Stocks mentioned in this interview include AMGN, GENZ, IDPH, GILD, IMCL, IMNX, PDLI, ICOS, IMNX, BGEN, CHIR and BMY.

2) Medical Device & Hospital Supply Outlook - In an in-depth (3,000 words) Analyst Interview, David J. Lothson, Managing Director in the healthcare group at UBS Warburg, examines the outlook for the sector including hospital supply, medical device stocks and shares specific stock recommendations. Stocks mentioned in this interview include ABT, BAX, JNJ, BDX, MDT, EW, BSX and GDT.

3) Small & Mid-Cap Biotechnology Stocks - In an in-depth (2,600 words) Analyst Interview, Andrew Gitkin, Executive Director at UBS Warburg, examines the outlook for the sector including small and mid-cap biotech companies, consolidation and shares specific stock recommendations. Stocks mentioned in this interview include NBIX, REGN and GSK.

4) Medical Device Companies/Small & Mid-Cap - In an in-depth (2,600 words) Analyst Interview, Charles Olsziewski, Executive Director at UBS Warburg, examines the outlook for the sector and specific stock highlights included in this interview are Medtronic and Cooper Companies. Stocks mentioned in this interview include MDT, BSMD, STE, VAR, COO, CPTS and ENDO.

5) Genomics & Diagnostics - In an in-depth (1,100 words) Analyst Interview, Ricky Goldwasser, Director at UBS Warburg, examines the outlook for the sector including genomics groups, diagnostics services group and shares specific stock recommendations. Stocks mentioned in this interview include MLMN, MYGN, LH, CRA, DIAN, UCOR, HGSI, DGX and SP.

6) European Biotechnology Companies - In an in-depth (1,800 words) Analyst Interview, Karl Keegan, Head of the European Biotechnology research team in London at UBS Warburg, examines the outlook for the sector including life sciences companies, specialty pharma, biotech companies - both platforms and therapeutic and shares specific stock recommendations. Stocks mentioned in this interview include CATG, CLL, CRXL, LEON, OGSI, SRA and SHIPGY.

7) CEO interviews (average 2,500 words). Top management of one hundred eighty-seven sector firms examine the outlook for their firm and the sector. .


Tickers included in this excerpt: MYGN

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This interview is a small excerpt from a comprehensive interview published in The Wall Street Transcript on 10/08/01. For more information call (212) 952 7400. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse any of the comments made by interviewees, and does not make stock recommendations.

Copyright 2001, Wall Street Transcript Corp.

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