In this excerpt from TWST’s interview with Tucker Grinnan, Regional Head of telecoms and media research, Asia-Pacific, for HSBC, discusses his favorite names in China’s Internet services sector as well as the domestic growth trends that are currently driving the industry.
TWST: What are the key growth drivers for the China Internet services space?
Mr. Grinnan: I think, again in a context of the broader Chinese market, China telco services, particularly wireless subscriber growth, has been the main growth driver for the industry as a whole. And investors have been positioned - particularly global investors - in a stock like China Mobile (CHL) because it’s consistently sort of a structural play on the expansion of telco services in China. That is no longer the case. Subscriber growth has slowed, usage has slowed, revenue growth has slowed, in particular now that Chinese telco companies are transitioning to 3G and there is a wave of cap ex. China is spending roughly $50 billion this year on telco cap ex, which is half of global cap ex. So an enormous expansion of the underlying telco network, both the fixed-line and the wireless portion. And the biggest beneficiaries of these are actually these China Internet service companies because their services are riding over top of this infrastructure, and you have an enormous expansion of the infrastructure at no direct cost to them. Overall, the Chinese Internet penetration rate today is around, let’s say on our numbers, 27% to 28%. We expect that to double over next three years. The China online services space is growing at something north of, let’s say, 30% a year compound annual growth rate in terms of revenues. Online gaming represents roughly 50% of that, and the other key areas are search, ad and e-commerce. The key point I’m trying to emphasize is that while we can talk about how all these companies are positioned within the China Internet space, and what the various advantages and disadvantages are, the underlying revenue base is growing explosively at roughly 30% a year. So not the rising tide that lifts all boats, but it makes it a lot easier to sail.
TWST: Would you say investors basically can’t go wrong in this space right now?
Mr. Grinnan: In a way, I don’t think we can go wrong. In other words, I would say at an aggregate level, I’d be buying this whole space. What you notice is that there are three big companies, Tencent (0700.HK), Baidu (BIDU) and Alibaba (1688.HK), which are large cap and have their respective stakes. Tencent is our favorite name because it is the most diversified. But I like the Chinese online game space; I like the online ad space; I like the e-commerce space, and all of these segments are in the midst of a structural growth surge. And one of the key points is that there is no Chinese state-owned company that competes in this space. So this is a space that is exclusively for private companies. And given the dominance of the Chinese government in the overall economy, it’s very hard to find a big, fast-growing space that has national exposure, that is geared to meet a domestic consumption play story, which I think is - the best part of the Chinese market is the emergence of the middle class in China, that’s the big story from a macro perspective. And this sector is one of the most interesting ways, in our view, to play the China domestic consumption play space because it’s a big sector that generates huge returns. It’s not capital intensive and there is no government-owned company in the space.